Causal graphs and d-separation

Write a causal story as a set of assignments and draw it as a directed graph. Three junctions, one rule for reading independence off the picture, backdoor paths, and the limits of what data can say about the arrows.

45 min

After this lesson you can

  • Write a structural causal model and draw its graph
  • Say what conditioning does in a chain, a fork and a collider, and why
  • Apply the d-separation rules to decide whether two variables are independent given a set
  • Identify backdoor paths and state the backdoor criterion
  • State the faithfulness assumption and give a distribution that violates it
  • Explain Markov equivalence and why data alone often cannot orient an edge

In this lesson

  1. Writing a causal story down
  2. Three junctions
  3. d-separation
  4. Backdoor paths
  5. Faithfulness: what the graph doesn’t promise
  6. Markov equivalence: the arrows data can’t see

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